Sooner or later, every sports bettor comes across the phrase "public betting.” In simplest terms, this refers to where bettors (the public) are putting their money.
But there’s a lot more to public betting than that. Whether you’re a novice sports bettor or a seasoned pro, knowing which side the public is on is an essential aspect of any betting strategy.
Below, we dive into why you’ll want to pay attention to the public betting percentage and how it can help you make better bets.
What is public betting?
As mentioned above, public betting is where everyday sports bettors place their wagers.
For instance, in Super Bowl 57, nearly 60% of public bets were on the Kansas City Chiefs at +1.5 against the Philadelphia Eagles. As we all know, the Chiefs went on to win the game.
In this case, the public was correct. If you were on the public’s side, you were a happy bettor.
But is it always a good idea to side with the public? Definitely not. If that were the case, the best online betting apps wouldn’t exist because they’d all be bankrupt.
What is a professional bettor?
In sports betting, there are two groups of bettors:
- The public (average everyday bettors)
- The professionals (otherwise known as “wise guys” or “sharps”)
A professional bettor is someone who does it as a full-time job. These are people (or syndicates) that place large amounts of money on any given contest.
Pros spend their lives swimming in data and building computer models that they use to get an edge. The resources they can access aren’t available to the public.
One way to spot where professional money is going is to look at the bets and money splits. There are times when you’ll see that 75% of the bets (tickets) are on one side, but most of the money put down is on the other.
This is a telltale sign that sharp money has come in hard, with big bets in a position against the public majority. The amount of money laid down by professionals can move lines across different sportsbooks, and it’s something to monitor.
It’s important to note that to break even as a sports bettor with typical -110 juice, you need to hit about 52.4% of your bets.
Professional bettors hit approximately 55%, with the best nailing 60-65% of their bets. In contrast, public bettors can usually be counted on to hit about 40% of their wagers.
These numbers can vary, of course. There are times when the public can get hot, and professionals can go ice cold.
But it's something to keep in mind for a long-term betting strategy, especially if you’re working with NFL public betting, NBA public betting and MLB public betting percentages.
Who is the public betting on?
The answer to this will obviously change from game to game and week-to-week.
You'll have to do a little research to see where the bets and money are landing for any given game.
One obvious way to see where the money is going is by looking at line movement, but that usually means professional money.
To see which side the public is on, you can research sports betting websites that show breakdowns of bets and money on each game with data they have pulled from different sportsbooks.
Many of these sites will charge you to access this information, but some free options are available if you dig deep enough.
These statistics will usually be broken down into percentages showing which side has the most bets on it and which side has the most money on it. Some sites will offer that data for moneylines, point spreads, totals and even player props.
Again, this info is particularly important and available for the big four American leagues: NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, plus college football and college basketball.
Public betting trends
Public betting trends refer to which side the public is on. You can use the data for a single game or throughout an entire season.
For example, if you wanted, you could go back and look at what percentage of bets were on the Kansas City Chiefs for every game of the 2022-23 NFL season.
A couple of common traits of NFL public bettors (and public bettors in general) is that they tend to bet on:
- Favorites
- Overs
This can naturally provide value on underdogs and under bets at sportsbooks.
What are public betting percentages?
As covered above, public betting percentages simply show which side the public is backing. You can look at the percentages of bets placed and the percentage of money on a side.
What does public consensus mean?
In sports betting, the public consensus is the side toward which public bettors are leaning. Using the Super Bowl betting odds example, the public consensus was on the Kansas City Chiefs, as approximately 60% of bets came in on the eventual champs.
What is ‘fading’ the public?
Fading the public is a sports betting strategy in itself. As pointed out earlier, the public generally wins at about a 40% clip. Some bettors feel that going against, or fading, the public and betting the opposite is a sound betting strategy.
While this can sometimes be profitable, it’s usually not a good idea to blindly bet against the public every game. The public can get hot and go on runs just like professionals.
It’s best to do your own research while using public betting consensus as one part of your overall betting strategy.
See more: What is a fade in sports betting?
NFL public betting
The NFL is one of the most accessible sports for tracking public betting. Not only is it the most bet-on sport in the United States, but there is a whole week in between games.
Money and bets will begin to flow immediately after one week wraps up, and bettors will be able to follow line movement for the next six or seven days.
Over the course of a week, a clear consensus usually forms. Observing that, you can then decide whether you want to join or fade the public.
While the public was on the right side for Super Bowl 57, it took a beating on NFL betting for most of the year. In 2022-23, the public’s record against the spread (ATS) was 122-149-8.
More on NFL betting:
NBA public betting
With nightly games during the NBA season, bettors will be challenged to stay on top of public trends. The best way to do so is to find a site that displays live betting trends, showcasing money and bet percentage splits.
Unlike the NFL, where you can track the lines over a week, NBA line movement will happen rapidly. Having access to this kind of data will allow you to track public consensus as well as identify where the sharp money is going.
The public got off to a strong start in the 2022-23 NBA season, with a 53-38-2 record ATS in October. But on the year (as of this writing), it has a 436-429-25 record. That isn’t profitable overall at just above 50%.
More on NBA betting:
Public betting systems
For sports bettors, it’s important to follow the public consensus and use it as a component of your overall betting strategy. But it should never be the sole determining factor of your bet.
As you can see from the NBA example above, your betting wouldn’t be profitable if you bet with the public for every game this season, nor would it be if you faded the public for every game this season.
That’s what makes sports betting challenging and why even highly skilled professional bettors hit only 55%.
The best policy is to take a holistic approach, gleaning information from as many sources as possible to fine-tune your strategy. Over time, tracking public betting numbers could reveal some profitable trends to use to your advantage, but remember that no betting strategy is infallible.
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Ryan Hagen broke into the sports betting world early. As a 14-year-old, he sought out a kiosk clerk with relaxed gambling views and convinced him to sell him “Sport Select” tickets – which was the Canadian Lottery Corporation’s original sports betting program. He graduated from Royal Roads University in 2007 and has since combined his passion for sports and (legal) gambling into a career as a sports betting writer. He’s covered college sports, contributed to newspapers and magazines, and written for multiple sportsbooks and affiliates. Off the clock he can be found traveling, searching for noodles, or working on his golf swing.
